RBI's mid quarter policy tomorrow will be watched more for its talk than its walk. Bankers and economists expect the Central Bank to keep policy rates unchanged but drop some hints on what it thinks about inflation and liquidity. CNBC-TV18’s Vidhi Godiawala and Gopika Gopakumar polled bankers and economists on their expectations and here's the result.
RBI is unlikely to signal any changes in the policy on Thursday. CNBC-TV18 poll of bankers and economists shows that RBI will keep repo and reverse repo rates unchanged in the mid-quarter review. This is in line with the guidance given by governor Subbarao after hiking key policy rates by 25 bps each in the November policy.
D Subbarao, Governor, RBI, said, “Based purely on current growth and inflation trends, the Reserve Bank believes that the likelihood of further rate actions in the immediate future is relatively low.”
Market will therefore keep a close watch on the RBI speaks—the consensus is that RBI will sound hawkish in the review with inflation hovering above RBI's comfort zone of 6%.
Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Credit Suisse, said, “We have three more 25 bps hikes, one 25 bps hike before current fiscal year, two more by July -August of 201. I think rates should be above normal.”
What RBI says about liquidity will be much watched say bankers.
Banks currently borrow over Rs 1 lakh crore from the RBI's repo window on a daily basis. This is expected to touch Rs 1.75 lakh crore by early next week when advance taxes are paid. So while there are stray hopes of a CRR cut, very few believe the RBI will go for it.
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